Will National Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election by 0-5%?
ActiveLiquidity $18.5K·Volume $15.8K·Ends Nov 8, 2026
Price now:Yes3%No97%
Smart money leans
No
97% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
75%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
97%price97%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$1,886 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered94¢97¢at 11:50(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy4d agoResolvesended(Nov 8, 2026)Liquidity$18.5K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is strongly betting on "No", with $1,886 riding on it.
The price of 97% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 94¢; the price was 97¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $1,886 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 11:50
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 5.1¢ | $10 |
| 4d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $173 |
| 4d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $19 |
| 4d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $28 |
| 4d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $19 |
| 4d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $19 |
| 4d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $57 |
| 4d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | No | 84¢ | $4 |
| 4d ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $7 |
| 4d ago | Ryxon21Top | Buy | Yes | 28¢ | $29 |
| 4d ago | Ryxon21Top | Buy | Yes | 16¢ | $47 |
| 4d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $352 |
| 4d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $47 |
| 4d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $544 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 8.0¢ | $40 |
| 4d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $217 |
| 4d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $413 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 15¢ | $13 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 15¢ | $12 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 15¢ | $20 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $8 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $16 |
| 4d ago | Ryxon21Top | Buy | Yes | 37¢ | $168 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $6 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $0 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $1 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $2 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $5 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $18 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $6 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $20 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $2 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $17 |
| 4d ago | Ryxon21Top | Buy | Yes | 58¢ | $18 |
| 4d ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 50¢ | $20 |
| 4d ago | Ryxon21Top | Buy | Yes | 48¢ | $89 |
| 4d ago | Ryxon21Top | Buy | Yes | 33¢ | $41 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 21¢ | $4 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 36¢ | $3 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 36¢ | $7 |
| 5d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 36¢ | $24 |
| 5d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 36¢ | $24 |
| 5d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 41¢ | $0 |
| 5d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 41¢ | $12 |
| 5d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 41¢ | $18 |
| 5d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 41¢ | $0 |
| 5d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 41¢ | $18 |
| 1w ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 36¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 36¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 36¢ | $3 |