Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 State of Mexico Congress election?
ActiveLiquidity $18.1K·Volume $9,043·Ends Jun 7, 2027
Price now:Yes96%No5%
Smart money leans
Yes
96% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
96%price96%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$1,119 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered81¢96¢at 07:44(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy3w agoResolvesin 208d(Jun 7, 2027)Liquidity$18.1K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $1,119 riding on it.
The price of 96% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 81¢; the price was 96¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $1,119 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:44
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Sell | Yes | 91¢ | $1,039 |
| 3w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Sell | Yes | 91¢ | $40 |
| 3w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Sell | Yes | 91¢ | $46 |
| 3w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | Yes | 90¢ | $25 |
| 3w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Sell | Yes | 91¢ | $2 |
| 3w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | Yes | 90¢ | $14 |
| 3w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Sell | Yes | 91¢ | $1 |
| 3w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Sell | Yes | 91¢ | $87 |
| 3w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | Yes | 90¢ | $1 |
| 3w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | Yes | 81¢ | $2,177 |