Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Guerrero Congress election?
ActiveLiquidity $20.9K·Volume $8,464·Ends Jun 7, 2027
Price now:Yes94%No7%
Smart money leans
Yes
94% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
94%price94%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$3,206 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h -$89
Smart money entered87¢94¢at 07:26(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy5d agoResolvesin 208d(Jun 7, 2027)Liquidity$20.9K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $3,206 riding on it.
The price of 94% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 87¢; the price was 94¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $3,206 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have trimmed -$89 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:26
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2d ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Sell | Yes | 94¢ | $19 |
| 2d ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Sell | Yes | 94¢ | $19 |
| 2d ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Sell | Yes | 94¢ | $52 |
| 3d ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Sell | Yes | 94¢ | $19 |
| 4d ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Sell | Yes | 94¢ | $61 |
| 4d ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Sell | Yes | 94¢ | $19 |
| 5d ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Sell | Yes | 94¢ | $14 |
| 5d ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Sell | Yes | 94¢ | $5 |
| 5d ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Sell | Yes | 94¢ | $10 |
| 5d ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | Yes | 94¢ | $42 |
| 5d ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | Yes | 87¢ | $3,364 |