Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Baja California Sur Congress election?
ActiveLiquidity $722·Volume $4,897·Ends Jun 7, 2027
Price now:Yes64%No37%
Smart money leans
Yes
64% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
64%price64%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$597 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$206
Smart money entered61¢64¢at 07:45(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesin 208d(Jun 7, 2027)Liquidity$722
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $597 riding on it.
The price of 64% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 61¢; the price was 64¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $597 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$206 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:45
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | Yes | 59¢ | $196 |
| 1w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 60¢ | $59 |
| 3w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 62¢ | $350 |