Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $4,053·Volume $67.6K·Ends Jul 1, 2027
Price now:Yes7%No93%
Smart money leans
No
93% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
93%price93%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$936 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered52¢93¢at 06:53(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy3w agoResolvesin 232d(Jul 1, 2027)Liquidity$4,053
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $936 riding on it.
The price of 93% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 52¢; the price was 93¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $936 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 06:53
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | No | 57¢ | $319 |
| 3w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 28¢ | $16 |
| 6w ago | 101456Mid | Buy | No | 50¢ | $1,906 |