Will Marine Tondelier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
ActiveLiquidity $12.1K·Volume $17.0K·Ends Apr 18, 2027
Price now:Yes27%No74%
Smart money leans
Yes
27% at snapshot
Divergence
-0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
71%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
27%price26%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$125 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$250
Smart money entered27¢27¢at 11:48Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesin 158d(Apr 18, 2027)Liquidity$12.1K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is strongly betting on "Yes", with $125 riding on it.
The price of 27% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 27¢; the price was 27¢ at this snapshot.
Note: only $125 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$250 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 11:48
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 27¢ | $134 |
| 1d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 27¢ | $130 |
| 6w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 68¢ | $20 |
| 7w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 72¢ | $101 |
| 7w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 73¢ | $146 |
| 8w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 73¢ | $10 |
| 9w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 73¢ | $63 |
| 11w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 74¢ | $2 |
| 11w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 74¢ | $15 |
| 11w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $150 |
| 11w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 76¢ | $189 |
| 11w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $227 |
| 11w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 73¢ | $37 |
| 11w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 73¢ | $16 |