Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
ActiveLiquidity $15.6K·Volume $40.5K·Ends Apr 18, 2027
Price now:Yes90%No10%
Smart money leans
Yes
90% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
90%price90%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$958 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h -$220
Smart money entered92¢90¢at 11:47(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy2w agoResolvesin 158d(Apr 18, 2027)Liquidity$15.6K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $958 riding on it.
The price of 90% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 92¢; the price was 90¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $958 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have trimmed -$220 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 11:47
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2d ago | ThanksGivingTurkey1001Mid | Sell | Yes | 93¢ | $2 |
| 2d ago | ThanksGivingTurkey1001Mid | Sell | Yes | 93¢ | $226 |
| 2w ago | 101456Mid | Buy | Yes | 83¢ | $50 |
| 2w ago | ThanksGivingTurkey1001Mid | Buy | Yes | 92¢ | $1,204 |
| 9w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Sell | Yes | 88¢ | $1,283 |
| 9w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Sell | Yes | 88¢ | $18 |
| 9w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Sell | Yes | 88¢ | $18 |
| 9w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Sell | Yes | 88¢ | $18 |
| 9w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Sell | Yes | 88¢ | $53 |
| 10w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Sell | Yes | 88¢ | $7 |
| 10w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Sell | Yes | 88¢ | $372 |
| 10w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Sell | Yes | 88¢ | $80 |
| 10w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Sell | Yes | 88¢ | $5 |
| 11w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Sell | Yes | 88¢ | $35 |
| 12w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Sell | Yes | 90¢ | $21 |