Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $729·Volume $108.2K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes79%No21%
Smart money leans
Yes
78% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
93%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
78%price78%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$332 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$664
Smart money entered79¢78¢at 06:47(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy1d agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$729
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $332 riding on it.
The price of 78% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 79¢; the price was 78¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $332 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$664 on this position.