Will Leonardo Montañez Castro win the 2027 Aguascalientes Governor Election?
ActiveLiquidity $24.2K·Volume $13.3K·Ends Jun 7, 2027
Price now:Yes31%No70%
Smart money leans
No
69% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
69%price69%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$310 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered65¢69¢at 07:16(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesin 208d(Jun 7, 2027)Liquidity$24.2K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $310 riding on it.
The price of 69% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 65¢; the price was 69¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $310 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:16
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | No | 65¢ | $310 |