Will Labour Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election by 0-5%?
ActiveLiquidity $15.8K·Volume $16.5K·Ends Nov 8, 2026
Price now:Yes96%No4%
Smart money leans
Yes
96% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
96%price96%model est.*
Smart wallets
5
$5,219 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$1,593
Smart money entered82¢96¢at 11:47(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesended(Nov 8, 2026)Liquidity$15.8K
Explanation
5 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $5,219 riding on it.
The price of 96% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 82¢; the price was 96¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$1,593 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 11:47
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 94¢ | $685 |
| 1d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 94¢ | $685 |
| 3d ago | fbetMid | Buy | Yes | 97¢ | $199 |
| 3d ago | fbetMid | Buy | Yes | 96¢ | $411 |
| 4d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | Yes | 95¢ | $74 |
| 4d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | Yes | 95¢ | $226 |
| 4d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | No | 5.0¢ | $10 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | No | 3.0¢ | $3 |
| 4d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | Yes | 94¢ | $43 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | No | 3.0¢ | $12 |
| 4d ago | fbetMid | Buy | Yes | 91¢ | $459 |
| 4d ago | fbetMid | Buy | Yes | 90¢ | $618 |
| 4d ago | Ryxon21Top | Buy | Yes | 90¢ | $15 |
| 4d ago | Ryxon21Top | Buy | Yes | 87¢ | $503 |
| 4d ago | fbetMid | Sell | No | 23¢ | $12 |
| 4d ago | fbetMid | Sell | No | 23¢ | $8 |
| 4d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | Yes | 76¢ | $8 |
| 4d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | Yes | 65¢ | $75 |
| 4d ago | fbetMid | Buy | No | 35¢ | $48 |
| 4d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | Yes | 89¢ | $494 |
| 4d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | Yes | 83¢ | $393 |
| 4d ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 17¢ | $2 |
| 4d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | Yes | 87¢ | $51 |
| 4d ago | Ryxon21Top | Buy | No | 34¢ | $71 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | No | 12¢ | $1 |
| 4d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | Yes | 86¢ | $731 |
| 4d ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 60¢ | $212 |
| 4d ago | Ryxon21Top | Buy | Yes | 75¢ | $303 |
| 4d ago | Ryxon21Top | Buy | Yes | 73¢ | $202 |
| 4d ago | Ryxon21Top | Buy | Yes | 69¢ | $202 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $2 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $0 |
| 4d ago | Ryxon21Top | Buy | No | 67¢ | $224 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 21¢ | $1 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 21¢ | $1 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 35¢ | $1 |
| 4d ago | Ryxon21Top | Buy | No | 64¢ | $280 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 35¢ | $103 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 40¢ | $20 |
| 4d ago | Ryxon21Top | Buy | No | 50¢ | $51 |
| 4d ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 49¢ | $20 |
| 5d ago | Ryxon21Top | Buy | Yes | 46¢ | $615 |
| 2w ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 35¢ | $1 |
| 3w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 71¢ | $8 |
| 3w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 74¢ | $15 |