Will La Bola Negra win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?
ActiveLiquidity $10.7K·Volume $43.8K·Ends Mar 14, 2027
Price now:Yes12%No88%
Smart money leans
Yes
12% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
12%price12%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$906 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered26¢12¢at 07:46(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy2w agoResolvesin 124d(Mar 14, 2027)Liquidity$10.7K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $906 riding on it.
The price of 12% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 26¢; the price was 12¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $906 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:46
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $8 |
| 2w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $8 |
| 2w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $21 |
| 2w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $3 |
| 2w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $4 |
| 2w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $21 |
| 3w ago | SagandMid | Buy | Yes | 26¢ | $207 |
| 4w ago | SagandMid | Buy | Yes | 35¢ | $516 |
| 4w ago | SagandMid | Buy | Yes | 33¢ | $207 |
| 7w ago | SagandMid | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $259 |
| 7w ago | SagandMid | Buy | Yes | 26¢ | $415 |
| 7w ago | SagandMid | Buy | Yes | 22¢ | $156 |
| 8w ago | SagandMid | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $260 |