Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?
ActiveLiquidity $49.4K·Volume $182.6K·Ends Nov 29, 2026
Price now:Yes67%No34%
Smart money leans
Yes
66% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.1pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
66%price66%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$3,179 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$66
72h +$442
Smart money entered71¢66¢at 11:52(0% priced in)Edge left+0.1ppLast smart buy1d agoResolvesin 18d(Nov 29, 2026)Liquidity$49.4K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $3,179 riding on it.
The price of 66% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 71¢; the price was 66¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $3,179 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$66, +$442 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 11:52
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | Yes | 65¢ | $65 |
| 1d ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | Yes | 66¢ | $56 |
| 1d ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | Yes | 66¢ | $43 |
| 1d ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | Yes | 67¢ | $109 |
| 1d ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | Yes | 67¢ | $173 |
| 5d ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | Yes | 67¢ | $4 |
| 5d ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | Yes | 67¢ | $63 |
| 5d ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | Yes | 67¢ | $226 |
| 3w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | Yes | 55¢ | $11 |
| 3w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | Yes | 55¢ | $26 |
| 3w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | Yes | 55¢ | $6 |
| 3w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | Yes | 68¢ | $8 |
| 3w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | Yes | 68¢ | $4 |
| 3w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | Yes | 68¢ | $209 |
| 3w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | Yes | 68¢ | $90 |
| 3w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | Yes | 68¢ | $138 |
| 3w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | Yes | 71¢ | $265 |
| 3w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | Yes | 71¢ | $18 |
| 3w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | Yes | 71¢ | $2 |
| 4w ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | No | 25¢ | $247 |
| 4w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | Yes | 68¢ | $112 |
| 4w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | Yes | 68¢ | $50 |
| 4w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | Yes | 70¢ | $47 |
| 4w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | Yes | 68¢ | $68 |
| 4w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | Yes | 70¢ | $39 |
| 4w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | Yes | 70¢ | $93 |
| 4w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | Yes | 74¢ | $64 |
| 4w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | Yes | 74¢ | $79 |
| 4w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | Yes | 74¢ | $17 |
| 4w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | Yes | 74¢ | $49 |
| 4w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | Yes | 74¢ | $13 |
| 4w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | Yes | 73¢ | $99 |
| 4w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | Yes | 69¢ | $122 |
| 4w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | Yes | 73¢ | $46 |
| 4w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | Yes | 73¢ | $215 |
| 4w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | Yes | 73¢ | $5 |
| 4w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | Yes | 78¢ | $103 |
| 4w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | Yes | 78¢ | $141 |
| 4w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | Yes | 78¢ | $52 |
| 4w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | Yes | 78¢ | $16 |
| 4w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | Yes | 81¢ | $295 |
| 4w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | Yes | 81¢ | $8 |
| 4w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | Yes | 81¢ | $8 |
| 4w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | Yes | 81¢ | $162 |
| 4w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | Yes | 81¢ | $12 |
| 4w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | No | 12¢ | $63 |
| 4w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | No | 12¢ | $62 |
| 12w ago | YouSayUpISayDownMid | Sell | No | 7.0¢ | $7 |
| 12w ago | YouSayUpISayDownMid | Buy | No | 11¢ | $11 |