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Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?

ActiveLiquidity $45.3K·Volume $20.8K·Ends Apr 18, 2027
Price now:Yes60%No40%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 11:46computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Yes
57% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
57%price57%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$1,267 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$365
72h +$365
Smart money entered49¢57¢at 11:46(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2h agoResolvesin 158d(Apr 18, 2027)Liquidity$45.3K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $1,267 riding on it.

The price of 57% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 49¢; the price was 57¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Note: only $1,267 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$365, +$365 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 11:46
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
2h agol3t0MidBuyYes56¢$342
8h agol3t0MidBuyYes56¢$17
3d agol3t0MidBuyYes47¢$8
3d agol3t0MidBuyYes47¢$920
4w agoviniiTopBuyYes48¢$5