Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?
ActiveLiquidity $45.3K·Volume $20.8K·Ends Apr 18, 2027
Price now:Yes60%No40%
Smart money leans
Yes
57% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
57%price57%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$1,267 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$365
72h +$365
Smart money entered49¢57¢at 11:46(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2h agoResolvesin 158d(Apr 18, 2027)Liquidity$45.3K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $1,267 riding on it.
The price of 57% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 49¢; the price was 57¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $1,267 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$365, +$365 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.