Will Japan win the 2027 AFC Asian Cup?
ActiveLiquidity $6,037·Volume $19.9K·Ends Feb 6, 2027
Price now:Yes3%No98%
Smart-money signal
What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 17:36Smart money exiting · $433 sold 24hcomputed 1h agoSmart money leans
No
97% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
97%price97%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$481 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
-$433
72h -$414
Smart money entered83¢97¢at 17:36(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2d agoResolvesin 87d(Feb 6, 2027)Liquidity$6,037
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $481 riding on it.
The price of 97% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 83¢; the price was 97¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Warning: wallets that backed "No" are now net selling it — followers usually exit when the wallets they follow do.
Note: only $481 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been trimming this position (-$433, -$414 over 3 days) — a sign conviction may be fading.
Delayed 1h · as of 17:36
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6h ago | 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70Top | Sell | No | 100¢ | $224 |
| 6h ago | 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70Top | Sell | No | 100¢ | $224 |
| 2d ago | 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70Top | Buy | No | 85¢ | $17 |
| 6d ago | 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70Top | Buy | No | 90¢ | $112 |
| 6d ago | 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70Top | Buy | No | 85¢ | $17 |
| 6d ago | 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70Top | Buy | No | 85¢ | $17 |
| 6d ago | 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70Top | Buy | No | 89¢ | $79 |
| 6d ago | 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70Top | Buy | No | 80¢ | $246 |
| 6d ago | 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70Top | Buy | No | 80¢ | $179 |
| 3w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Buy | No | 67¢ | $10 |
| 3w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Buy | No | 72¢ | $25 |