Will James Li win the 2026 Scarborough North by-election?
ActiveLiquidity $8,778·Volume $3,917·Ends Dec 7, 2026
Price now:Yes98%No2%
Smart money leans
Yes
98% at snapshot
Divergence
-0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
98%price98%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$309 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h -$231
Smart money entered96¢98¢at 07:41Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2d agoResolvesin 27d(Dec 7, 2026)Liquidity$8,778
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $309 riding on it.
The price of 98% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 96¢; the price was 98¢ at this snapshot.
Note: only $309 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have trimmed -$231 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:41
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2d ago | plumbisMid | Buy | Yes | 96¢ | $309 |
| 2d ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | Yes | 93¢ | $516 |
| 5d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 91¢ | $505 |