Will Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar be arrested in 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $11.6K·Volume $13.0K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes5%No95%
Smart money leans
No
95% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
95%price95%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$1,071 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered84¢95¢at 06:59(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$11.6K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $1,071 riding on it.
The price of 95% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 84¢; the price was 95¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $1,071 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 06:59
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | clazzy1Mid | Buy | No | 88¢ | $252 |
| 1w ago | clazzy1Mid | Buy | No | 82¢ | $299 |
| 2w ago | clazzy1Mid | Buy | No | 88¢ | $74 |
| 2w ago | clazzy1Mid | Buy | No | 86¢ | $186 |
| 2w ago | clazzy1Mid | Sell | No | 92¢ | $305 |
| 2w ago | clazzy1Mid | Buy | No | 87¢ | $55 |
| 4w ago | clazzy1Mid | Buy | No | 84¢ | $44 |
| 4w ago | clazzy1Mid | Buy | No | 85¢ | $122 |
| 4w ago | clazzy1Mid | Sell | No | 94¢ | $649 |
| 5w ago | clazzy1Mid | Buy | No | 77¢ | $474 |
| 5w ago | clazzy1Mid | Buy | No | 81¢ | $22 |
| 6w ago | clazzy1Mid | Sell | No | 90¢ | $72 |
| 6w ago | clazzy1Mid | Sell | No | 91¢ | $145 |
| 6w ago | clazzy1Mid | Buy | No | 78¢ | $27 |
| 6w ago | clazzy1Mid | Buy | No | 74¢ | $250 |
| 6w ago | clazzy1Mid | Buy | No | 66¢ | $211 |