Will Iran legalize gay marriage?
ActiveLiquidity $52.5K·Volume $87.9K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes1%No99%
Smart money leans
No
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$824 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered96¢99¢at 06:32(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy3w agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$52.5K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $824 riding on it.
The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 96¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $824 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 06:32
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3w ago | StudyPredictionMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $19 |
| 3w ago | StudyPredictionMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $1 |
| 5w ago | StudyPredictionMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $78 |