Will Hsu Hsin-ying win the next Hsinchu County Magistrate election?
ActiveLiquidity $26.8K·Volume $22.1K·Ends Nov 29, 2026
Price now:Yes39%No62%
Smart money leans
Yes
39% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
39%price39%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$511 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h -$513
Smart money entered32¢39¢at 07:40Edge leftnoneLast smart buy4d agoResolvesin 18d(Nov 29, 2026)Liquidity$26.8K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $511 riding on it.
The price of 39% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 32¢; the price was 39¢ at this snapshot.
Note: only $511 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have trimmed -$513 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:40
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | Yes | 38¢ | $53 |
| 1d ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | Yes | 38¢ | $53 |
| 2d ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | Yes | 33¢ | $334 |
| 4d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 31¢ | $609 |
| 6d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 34¢ | $246 |
| 2w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 35¢ | $47 |
| 2w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 34¢ | $30 |
| 3w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 58¢ | $56 |
| 6w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 34¢ | $17 |
| 8w ago | troimMid | Sell | No | 45¢ | $90 |
| 12w ago | troimMid | Buy | No | 50¢ | $100 |