Will Harry Kane win the 2026 BBC Sports Personality of the Year award?
ActiveLiquidity $7,787·Volume $24.4K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes63%No37%
Smart money leans
Yes
63% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
97%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
63%price63%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$681 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$186
72h +$186
Smart money entered61¢63¢at 11:43(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy19h agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$7,787
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $681 riding on it.
The price of 63% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 61¢; the price was 63¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $681 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$186, +$186 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 11:43
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19h ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | Yes | 57¢ | $143 |
| 19h ago | ZaratustraMid | Buy | Yes | 54¢ | $24 |
| 1w ago | 4751346Mid | Sell | Yes | 67¢ | $18 |
| 1w ago | 4751346Mid | Sell | Yes | 67¢ | $25 |
| 1w ago | AnjunMid | Buy | No | 35¢ | $11 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | Yes | 61¢ | $193 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | Yes | 54¢ | $137 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | Yes | 57¢ | $206 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | Yes | 58¢ | $29 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | Yes | 63¢ | $24 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | Yes | 63¢ | $33 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | Yes | 63¢ | $65 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | Yes | 63¢ | $35 |
| 1w ago | 4751346Mid | Sell | Yes | 67¢ | $10 |
| 1w ago | 4751346Mid | Sell | Yes | 67¢ | $50 |
| 1w ago | 4751346Mid | Sell | Yes | 67¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | 4751346Mid | Sell | Yes | 67¢ | $30 |
| 1w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 65¢ | $33 |
| 1w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 65¢ | $33 |
| 1w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 66¢ | $57 |
| 1w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 66¢ | $35 |
| 1w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 66¢ | $40 |
| 1w ago | 4751346Mid | Sell | Yes | 68¢ | $25 |
| 1w ago | 4751346Mid | Sell | Yes | 68¢ | $44 |
| 2w ago | 4751346Mid | Sell | Yes | 68¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | 4751346Mid | Sell | Yes | 68¢ | $25 |
| 2w ago | 4751346Mid | Sell | Yes | 68¢ | $35 |
| 2w ago | 4751346Mid | Sell | Yes | 68¢ | $4 |
| 2w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | Yes | 62¢ | $465 |
| 2w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 57¢ | $12 |
| 2w ago | 4751346Mid | Sell | Yes | 68¢ | $14 |
| 2w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 67¢ | $3 |
| 2w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 67¢ | $7 |
| 2w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 67¢ | $13 |
| 2w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 67¢ | $20 |
| 2w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 67¢ | $20 |
| 2w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 67¢ | $20 |
| 2w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 67¢ | $13 |
| 2w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 67¢ | $13 |
| 2w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 67¢ | $9 |
| 2w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 67¢ | $10 |
| 2w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 67¢ | $15 |