Will Guadalajara win the 2026 Liga MX Apertura?
ActiveLiquidity $4,643·Volume $35.2K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes22%No79%
Smart money leans
No
79% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
79%price79%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$2,287 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered81¢79¢at 07:46(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy10h agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$4,643
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $2,287 riding on it.
The price of 79% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 81¢; the price was 79¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $2,287 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:46
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10h ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 76¢ | $0 |
| 10h ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 76¢ | $4 |
| 2d ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $49 |
| 2d ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $49 |
| 1w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 78¢ | $57 |
| 1w ago | thefakenickMid | Sell | No | 80¢ | $626 |
| 1w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 77¢ | $33 |
| 1w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 77¢ | $1,346 |
| 1w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | Yes | 23¢ | $6 |
| 1w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | Yes | 23¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 79¢ | $30 |
| 1w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 81¢ | $6 |
| 1w ago | thefakenickMid | Sell | No | 85¢ | $208 |
| 4w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $25 |
| 4w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 82¢ | $43 |
| 4w ago | thefakenickMid | Sell | No | 84¢ | $8 |
| 5w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $15 |
| 5w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $1 |
| 5w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $2 |
| 5w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $6 |
| 5w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $17 |
| 5w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $18 |
| 5w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $0 |
| 5w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $0 |
| 5w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $3 |
| 6w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 77¢ | $1 |
| 6w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 77¢ | $33 |
| 6w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 77¢ | $6 |
| 6w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 77¢ | $59 |
| 7w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 76¢ | $10 |
| 7w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 76¢ | $16 |
| 7w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 76¢ | $27 |
| 8w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 80¢ | $8 |
| 8w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 80¢ | $18 |
| 8w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 80¢ | $18 |
| 8w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 80¢ | $59 |
| 8w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 80¢ | $9 |
| 8w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 80¢ | $16 |
| 8w ago | thefakenickMid | Sell | No | 83¢ | $8 |
| 8w ago | thefakenickMid | Sell | No | 83¢ | $4 |
| 8w ago | thefakenickMid | Sell | No | 83¢ | $28 |
| 8w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 80¢ | $7 |
| 9w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 80¢ | $8 |
| 9w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 82¢ | $41 |
| 9w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 82¢ | $11 |
| 9w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 82¢ | $28 |
| 9w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 82¢ | $19 |
| 9w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 82¢ | $41 |
| 9w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 82¢ | $41 |
| 9w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 82¢ | $41 |