Will Gérald Darmanin announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $4,580·Volume $2,476·Ends Apr 18, 2027
Price now:Yes2%No98%
Smart money leans
No
98% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
98%price98%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$999 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered95¢98¢at 05:40(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesin 157d(Apr 18, 2027)Liquidity$4,580
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $999 riding on it.
The price of 98% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 95¢; the price was 98¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $999 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 05:40
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | 0x9cb9…7b80Mid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $333 |
| 5w ago | 0x9cb9…7b80Mid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $50 |
| 5w ago | 0x9cb9…7b80Mid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $17 |
| 5w ago | 0x9cb9…7b80Mid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $246 |
| 8w ago | 0x9cb9…7b80Mid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $19 |
| 11w ago | 0x9cb9…7b80Mid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $74 |
| 12w ago | 0x9cb9…7b80Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $122 |
| 12w ago | 0x9cb9…7b80Mid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $139 |