Will FW be in the next Berlin state government?
ActiveLiquidity $2,371·Volume $2,483·Ends Sep 21, 2026
Price now:Yes1%No99%
Smart money leans
No
97% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
97%price97%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$1,236 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered96¢97¢at 07:59(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesended(Sep 21, 2026)Liquidity$2,371
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $1,236 riding on it.
The price of 97% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 96¢; the price was 97¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $1,236 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.