Will François Bayrou announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $4,518·Volume $3,611·Ends Apr 18, 2027
Price now:Yes3%No97%
Smart money leans
No
97% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
97%price97%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$268 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered94¢97¢at 05:41(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy3w agoResolvesin 157d(Apr 18, 2027)Liquidity$4,518
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $268 riding on it.
The price of 97% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 94¢; the price was 97¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $268 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 05:41
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2w ago | 0x9cb9…7b80Mid | Sell | No | 96¢ | $632 |
| 3w ago | 0x9cb9…7b80Mid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $636 |
| 3w ago | 0x9cb9…7b80Mid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $129 |
| 6w ago | 0x9cb9…7b80Mid | Sell | No | 98¢ | $81 |
| 10w ago | 0x9cb9…7b80Mid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $7 |
| 11w ago | 0x9cb9…7b80Mid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $12 |
| 11w ago | 0x9cb9…7b80Mid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $18 |
| 11w ago | 0x9cb9…7b80Mid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $164 |