Will exactly 2 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?
ActiveLiquidity $14.4K·Volume $87.1K·Ends Jan 1, 2028
Price now:Yes25%No76%
Smart money leans
Yes
25% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
25%price25%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$322 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered30¢25¢at 07:39(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy1w agoResolvesin 416d(Jan 1, 2028)Liquidity$14.4K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $322 riding on it.
The price of 25% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 30¢; the price was 25¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $322 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:39
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3d ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $4 |
| 4d ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | Yes | 27¢ | $14 |
| 1w ago | HolyMoses7Mid | Sell | Yes | 45¢ | $152 |
| 1w ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 59¢ | $120 |
| 1w ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 57¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 57¢ | $29 |
| 1w ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 57¢ | $57 |
| 1w ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 57¢ | $29 |
| 1w ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 57¢ | $11 |
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | Yes | 37¢ | $11 |
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | Yes | 36¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | Yes | 39¢ | $39 |
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | Yes | 39¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | Yes | 40¢ | $7 |
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | Yes | 39¢ | $21 |
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | Yes | 39¢ | $7 |
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | Yes | 39¢ | $26 |
| 1w ago | HolyMoses7Mid | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $71 |
| 2w ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 55¢ | $80 |
| 2w ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 55¢ | $5 |
| 2w ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 55¢ | $10 |
| 2w ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 55¢ | $20 |
| 2w ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 55¢ | $19 |
| 2w ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 55¢ | $11 |
| 2w ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 36¢ | $461 |
| 2w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | Yes | 34¢ | $7 |
| 2w ago | HolyMoses7Mid | Buy | Yes | 34¢ | $32 |
| 3w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | Yes | 28¢ | $12 |
| 5w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $1 |
| 6w ago | HolyMoses7Mid | Sell | Yes | 33¢ | $7 |
| 6w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | Yes | 33¢ | $7 |
| 6w ago | HolyMoses7Mid | Sell | Yes | 32¢ | $46 |
| 6w ago | HolyMoses7Mid | Sell | Yes | 34¢ | $75 |
| 6w ago | HolyMoses7Mid | Sell | Yes | 37¢ | $7 |
| 6w ago | HolyMoses7Mid | Sell | Yes | 34¢ | $35 |
| 6w ago | HolyMoses7Mid | Sell | Yes | 34¢ | $14 |
| 6w ago | HolyMoses7Mid | Sell | Yes | 34¢ | $7 |
| 6w ago | HolyMoses7Mid | Sell | Yes | 34¢ | $7 |
| 6w ago | HolyMoses7Mid | Sell | Yes | 34¢ | $7 |
| 6w ago | HolyMoses7Mid | Sell | Yes | 34¢ | $7 |
| 6w ago | HolyMoses7Mid | Sell | Yes | 28¢ | $11 |
| 6w ago | HolyMoses7Mid | Sell | Yes | 29¢ | $38 |
| 6w ago | HolyMoses7Mid | Sell | Yes | 30¢ | $83 |
| 6w ago | HolyMoses7Mid | Sell | Yes | 29¢ | $37 |
| 6w ago | HolyMoses7Mid | Sell | Yes | 31¢ | $12 |
| 6w ago | HolyMoses7Mid | Sell | Yes | 33¢ | $41 |
| 7w ago | HolyMoses7Mid | Sell | Yes | 28¢ | $55 |
| 7w ago | HolyMoses7Mid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $52 |
| 7w ago | HolyMoses7Mid | Sell | Yes | 28¢ | $55 |
| 9w ago | HolyMoses7Mid | Sell | Yes | 30¢ | $16 |