Will Duke reach the 2027 NCAA Men's Basketball Final Four?
ActiveLiquidity $609·Volume $643·Ends Mar 29, 2027
Price now:Yes40%No61%
Smart money leans
Yes
44% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
44%price44%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$282 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$205
72h +$205
Smart money entered37¢44¢at 05:33(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1h agoResolvesin 136d(Mar 29, 2027)Liquidity$609
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $282 riding on it.
The price of 44% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 37¢; the price was 44¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $282 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$205, +$205 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 05:33
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h ago | 0xf9f2…5cbaTop | Sell | Yes | 44¢ | $8 |
| 1h ago | 0xf9f2…5cbaTop | Sell | Yes | 44¢ | $8 |
| 1h ago | 0xf9f2…5cbaTop | Buy | Yes | 36¢ | $174 |
| 1h ago | 0xf9f2…5cbaTop | Buy | Yes | 36¢ | $174 |
| 5d ago | 0xf9f2…5cbaTop | Buy | Yes | 38¢ | $21 |
| 5d ago | 0xf9f2…5cbaTop | Buy | Yes | 38¢ | $38 |
| 5d ago | 0xf9f2…5cbaTop | Buy | Yes | 38¢ | $8 |
| 5d ago | 0xf9f2…5cbaTop | Buy | Yes | 38¢ | $8 |
| 5d ago | 0xf9f2…5cbaTop | Buy | Yes | 38¢ | $15 |
| 5d ago | 0xf9f2…5cbaTop | Buy | Yes | 38¢ | $9 |
| 5d ago | 0xf9f2…5cbaTop | Buy | Yes | 38¢ | $15 |