Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
ActiveLiquidity $11.2K·Volume $25.8K·Ends Apr 18, 2027
Price now:Yes71%No29%
Smart money leans
No
29% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
66%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
29%price29%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$424 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$262
Smart money entered28¢29¢at 07:44(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesin 159d(Apr 18, 2027)Liquidity$11.2K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are somewhat betting on "No", with $424 riding on it.
The price of 29% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 28¢; the price was 29¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $424 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$262 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:44
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 68¢ | $102 |
| 1d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 68¢ | $102 |
| 1d ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | No | 35¢ | $118 |
| 1d ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | No | 35¢ | $118 |
| 2d ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | No | 32¢ | $72 |
| 3d ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | No | 25¢ | $268 |