Will Democrats win exactly 5 House seats in Arizona in the 2026 midterm elections?
ActiveLiquidity $10.3K·Volume $15.6K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes100%No0%
Smart money leans
Yes
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$1,091
Smart money entered99¢100¢at 11:40(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$10.3K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $0 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 99¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $0 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$1,091 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 11:40
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | FlyingPlatyMid | Buy | Yes | 100¢ | $628 |
| 1d ago | FlyingPlatyMid | Buy | Yes | 99¢ | $230 |
| 1d ago | FlyingPlatyMid | Buy | Yes | 99¢ | $230 |
| 6d ago | G.HchenTop | Sell | Yes | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 6d ago | G.HchenTop | Sell | Yes | 2.0¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $9 |
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | Yes | 48¢ | $10 |
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $13 |
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | Yes | 43¢ | $9 |
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | Yes | 50¢ | $4 |
| 7w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $9 |
| 7w ago | G.HchenTop | Sell | Yes | 51¢ | $10 |
| 8w ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | Yes | 54¢ | $38 |