Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
ActiveLiquidity $12.2K·Volume $35.7K·Ends Apr 18, 2027
Price now:Yes82%No19%
Smart money leans
No
20% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.4pp
model above price
Consensus
89%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
20%price20%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$928 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$177
Smart money entered23¢20¢at 07:42(0% priced in)Edge left+0.4ppLast smart buy1d agoResolvesin 159d(Apr 18, 2027)Liquidity$12.2K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $928 riding on it.
The price of 20% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 23¢; the price was 20¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $928 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$177 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:42
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | No | 20¢ | $71 |
| 1d ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | No | 20¢ | $71 |
| 2d ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | No | 16¢ | $29 |
| 4d ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | No | 18¢ | $19 |
| 1w ago | roscoffMid | Buy | No | 24¢ | $44 |
| 1w ago | roscoffMid | Buy | No | 24¢ | $8 |
| 1w ago | roscoffMid | Buy | No | 24¢ | $816 |
| 1w ago | roscoffMid | Buy | No | 24¢ | $104 |
| 2w ago | roscoffMid | Buy | No | 19¢ | $0 |
| 5w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Sell | Yes | 86¢ | $5 |
| 7w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 50¢ | $3 |
| 7w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 50¢ | $16 |
| 7w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 50¢ | $31 |
| 7w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 55¢ | $15 |
| 7w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 55¢ | $40 |
| 7w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 72¢ | $428 |