Will Cruz Azul win the 2026 Liga MX Apertura?
ActiveLiquidity $4,213·Volume $28.3K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes21%No80%
Smart money leans
No
80% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
80%price80%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$2,210 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
-$16
72h +$997
Smart money entered79¢80¢at 07:45(59% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$4,213
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $2,210 riding on it.
The price of 80% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 79¢; the price was 80¢ at this snapshot — roughly 59% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $2,210 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been trimming this position (-$16, +$997 over 3 days) — a sign conviction may be fading.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:45
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2h ago | thefakenickMid | Sell | No | 80¢ | $17 |
| 1d ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $24 |
| 1d ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $24 |
| 1d ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $113 |
| 1d ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $10 |
| 1d ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $10 |
| 1d ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $37 |
| 1d ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $37 |
| 1d ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $138 |
| 1d ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $138 |
| 1d ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $59 |
| 1d ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $59 |
| 2d ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $59 |
| 2d ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $59 |
| 2d ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $3 |
| 2d ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $3 |
| 2d ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $3 |
| 2d ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $90 |
| 2d ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $11 |
| 2d ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $65 |
| 2d ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $15 |
| 2d ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $75 |
| 2d ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $12 |
| 3d ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 80¢ | $176 |
| 6d ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 80¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 80¢ | $400 |
| 6d ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 80¢ | $160 |
| 6d ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 80¢ | $40 |
| 6d ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 80¢ | $160 |
| 6d ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 80¢ | $9 |
| 1w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 80¢ | $25 |
| 1w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 80¢ | $101 |
| 1w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 80¢ | $66 |
| 1w ago | thefakenickMid | Sell | No | 85¢ | $43 |
| 1w ago | thefakenickMid | Sell | No | 85¢ | $1,204 |
| 2w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 82¢ | $7 |
| 2w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 82¢ | $10 |
| 2w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 82¢ | $11 |
| 2w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 82¢ | $13 |
| 2w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 82¢ | $10 |
| 2w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 82¢ | $10 |
| 2w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 82¢ | $17 |
| 2w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 82¢ | $59 |
| 2w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 82¢ | $408 |
| 2w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 82¢ | $53 |
| 2w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 82¢ | $18 |
| 2w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 82¢ | $10 |
| 2w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 82¢ | $18 |
| 2w ago | thefakenickMid | Buy | No | 82¢ | $34 |