Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $2,402·Volume $34.7K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes55%No45%
Smart money leans
Yes
56% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
56%price56%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$844 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered71¢56¢at 07:15(0% priced in)Edge leftnoneSignal age30dResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$2,402
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $844 riding on it.
The price of 56% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 71¢; the price was 56¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $844 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:15
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 33¢ | $34 |
| 2w ago | YouSayUpISayDownMid | Sell | No | 31¢ | $4 |
| 2w ago | YouSayUpISayDownMid | Sell | No | 31¢ | $6 |
| 2w ago | YouSayUpISayDownMid | Sell | No | 31¢ | $12 |
| 2w ago | YouSayUpISayDownMid | Buy | No | 29¢ | $20 |
| 3w ago | YouSayUpISayDownMid | Sell | No | 35¢ | $1 |
| 3w ago | YouSayUpISayDownMid | Sell | No | 35¢ | $7 |
| 4w ago | YouSayUpISayDownMid | Buy | No | 33¢ | $10 |
| 5w ago | YouSayUpISayDownMid | Buy | No | 32¢ | $7 |
| 7w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 70¢ | $40 |
| 7w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 70¢ | $1 |
| 7w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 70¢ | $9 |
| 7w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 70¢ | $7 |
| 7w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 70¢ | $0 |
| 7w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 70¢ | $13 |
| 7w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 73¢ | $483 |
| 7w ago | 4751346Mid | Sell | Yes | 71¢ | $28 |
| 7w ago | 4751346Mid | Sell | Yes | 62¢ | $186 |
| 7w ago | 4751346Mid | Sell | Yes | 71¢ | $71 |
| 7w ago | 4751346Mid | Sell | Yes | 57¢ | $28 |
| 7w ago | DumplingBMFMid | Buy | Yes | 59¢ | $118 |
| 7w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 65¢ | $7 |
| 7w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 65¢ | $19 |
| 7w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 65¢ | $22 |
| 7w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 65¢ | $18 |
| 8w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 69¢ | $163 |
| 8w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 62¢ | $22 |
| 8w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 70¢ | $63 |
| 8w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 70¢ | $7 |
| 8w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 71¢ | $67 |
| 8w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 68¢ | $50 |
| 8w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 77¢ | $154 |
| 8w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 81¢ | $96 |
| 8w ago | 4751346Mid | Sell | Yes | 80¢ | $1 |
| 8w ago | 4751346Mid | Sell | Yes | 66¢ | $66 |