Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?
ActiveLiquidity $8,386·Volume $126.6K·Ends Nov 8, 2026
Price now:Yes87%No13%
Smart money leans
No
12% at snapshot
Divergence
-0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
63%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
12%price12%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$669 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$90
Smart money entered15¢12¢at 11:47Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2d agoResolvesended(Nov 8, 2026)Liquidity$8,386
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are somewhat betting on "No", with $669 riding on it.
The price of 12% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 15¢; the price was 12¢ at this snapshot.
Note: only $669 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$90 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 11:47
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | Crypto-JoeTop | Sell | Yes | 90¢ | $12 |
| 1d ago | Crypto-JoeTop | Sell | Yes | 90¢ | $12 |
| 2d ago | Crypto-JoeTop | Sell | Yes | 90¢ | $198 |
| 2d ago | Crypto-JoeTop | Sell | Yes | 90¢ | $45 |
| 2d ago | Crypto-JoeTop | Sell | Yes | 90¢ | $45 |
| 2d ago | mrworldwideTop | Sell | Yes | 91¢ | $543 |
| 2d ago | SunlineTickerMid | Buy | No | 10¢ | $2 |
| 2d ago | SunlineTickerMid | Buy | No | 10¢ | $1 |
| 2d ago | SunlineTickerMid | Buy | No | 10¢ | $3 |
| 2d ago | SunlineTickerMid | Buy | No | 10¢ | $3 |
| 2d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | No | 9.0¢ | $15 |
| 2d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | No | 11¢ | $39 |
| 2d ago | Crypto-JoeTop | Buy | Yes | 87¢ | $307 |
| 2d ago | Crypto-JoeTop | Buy | Yes | 87¢ | $305 |
| 2d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | No | 11¢ | $11 |
| 2d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | No | 11¢ | $5 |
| 3d ago | 4751346Mid | Sell | Yes | 80¢ | $74 |
| 3d ago | 4751346Mid | Sell | Yes | 80¢ | $30 |
| 3d ago | clazzy1Mid | Buy | Yes | 78¢ | $70 |
| 3d ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 77¢ | $3 |
| 3d ago | SunlineTickerMid | Buy | No | 23¢ | $11 |
| 3d ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 77¢ | $37 |
| 3d ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 77¢ | $10 |
| 3d ago | 4751346Mid | Sell | Yes | 80¢ | $16 |
| 3d ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 77¢ | $94 |
| 3d ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 76¢ | $683 |
| 3d ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 77¢ | $60 |
| 3d ago | SunlineTickerMid | Buy | Yes | 82¢ | $17 |
| 3d ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 76¢ | $21 |
| 3d ago | SunlineTickerMid | Buy | Yes | 80¢ | $37 |
| 3d ago | SunlineTickerMid | Buy | Yes | 80¢ | $18 |
| 3d ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 76¢ | $2 |
| 3d ago | SunlineTickerMid | Buy | Yes | 82¢ | $18 |
| 3d ago | SunlineTickerMid | Buy | Yes | 82¢ | $8 |
| 3d ago | Crypto-JoeTop | Sell | Yes | 76¢ | $762 |
| 3d ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 76¢ | $760 |
| 3d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 75¢ | $546 |
| 3d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 76¢ | $97 |
| 3d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 76¢ | $333 |
| 3d ago | SunlineTickerMid | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $17 |
| 3d ago | SunlineTickerMid | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $36 |
| 3d ago | YouSayUpISayDownMid | Sell | No | 18¢ | $3 |
| 3d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 76¢ | $330 |
| 3d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 83¢ | $22 |
| 3d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 83¢ | $490 |
| 3d ago | SunlineTickerMid | Buy | Yes | 85¢ | $30 |
| 3d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 83¢ | $85 |
| 3d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 83¢ | $135 |
| 3d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 83¢ | $26 |
| 3d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 83¢ | $356 |