Will China GDP growth in Q4 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?
ActiveLiquidity $3,175·Volume $9,941·Ends Feb 1, 2027
Price now:Yes55%No45%
Smart money leans
No
45% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
45%price45%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$672 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered54¢45¢at 07:13(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy2w agoResolvesin 82d(Feb 1, 2027)Liquidity$3,175
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $672 riding on it.
The price of 45% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 54¢; the price was 45¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $672 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:13
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | No | 53¢ | $58 |
| 2w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | No | 53¢ | $6 |
| 2w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | No | 53¢ | $11 |
| 2w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | No | 53¢ | $11 |
| 2w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | No | 53¢ | $10 |
| 2w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | No | 53¢ | $10 |
| 2w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 60¢ | $23 |
| 2w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | No | 59¢ | $96 |
| 2w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | No | 59¢ | $3 |
| 2w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | No | 59¢ | $18 |
| 2w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | No | 60¢ | $66 |
| 2w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | No | 52¢ | $511 |