Will Carlos Torres Piña win the 2027 Michoacán Governor Election?
ActiveLiquidity $50.5K·Volume $18.8K·Ends Jun 7, 2027
Price now:Yes53%No47%
Smart-money signal
What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 07:46Smart money exiting · $270 sold 24hcomputed 1h agoSmart money leans
No
52% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
52%price52%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$592 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
-$270
72h +$927
Smart money entered34¢52¢at 07:46(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesin 208d(Jun 7, 2027)Liquidity$50.5K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $592 riding on it.
The price of 52% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 34¢; the price was 52¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Warning: wallets that backed "No" are now net selling it — followers usually exit when the wallets they follow do.
Note: only $592 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been trimming this position (-$270, +$927 over 3 days) — a sign conviction may be fading.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:46
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15h ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Sell | No | 58¢ | $148 |
| 15h ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Sell | No | 58¢ | $151 |
| 1d ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | No | 36¢ | $419 |
| 1d ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | No | 36¢ | $419 |
| 3d ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | Yes | 65¢ | $13 |
| 3d ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | No | 32¢ | $593 |
| 2w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Sell | Yes | 70¢ | $84 |
| 2w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | Yes | 41¢ | $444 |