Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
ActiveLiquidity $22.4K·Volume $21.8K·Ends Apr 18, 2027
Price now:Yes26%No74%
Smart money leans
No
74% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
71%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
74%price74%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$425 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$111
Smart money entered44¢74¢at 11:45(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2d agoResolvesin 158d(Apr 18, 2027)Liquidity$22.4K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are strongly betting on "No", with $425 riding on it.
The price of 74% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 44¢; the price was 74¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $425 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$111 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 11:45
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 34¢ | $51 |
| 1d ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 34¢ | $51 |
| 2d ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | No | 70¢ | $105 |
| 4d ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | No | 65¢ | $164 |
| 6w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 24¢ | $9 |
| 7w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 25¢ | $5 |
| 9w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 26¢ | $21 |
| 9w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 26¢ | $5 |
| 9w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 27¢ | $26 |
| 9w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 27¢ | $1 |
| 9w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 29¢ | $23 |
| 9w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 29¢ | $6 |
| 9w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 30¢ | $27 |
| 9w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 30¢ | $3 |
| 9w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 32¢ | $18 |
| 9w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 32¢ | $9 |
| 9w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 32¢ | $5 |