Will BNG win exactly 2 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?
ActiveLiquidity $6,218·Volume $2,444·Ends Nov 30, 2026
Price now:Yes69%No32%
Smart money leans
Yes
69% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
69%price69%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$475 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered49¢69¢at 00:15(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesin 19d(Nov 30, 2026)Liquidity$6,218
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $475 riding on it.
The price of 69% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 49¢; the price was 69¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $475 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 00:15
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 57¢ | $65 |
| 1w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 58¢ | $15 |
| 2w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 47¢ | $9 |
| 2w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 51¢ | $223 |
| 2w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 44¢ | $163 |
| 2w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 37¢ | $0 |