Will BNG win 4 or more seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?
ActiveLiquidity $4,088·Volume $2,283·Ends Nov 30, 2026
Price now:Yes15%No85%
Smart money leans
No
85% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
85%price85%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$261 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered86¢85¢at 04:21(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy1w agoResolvesin 19d(Nov 30, 2026)Liquidity$4,088
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $261 riding on it.
The price of 85% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 86¢; the price was 85¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $261 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 04:21
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | No | 82¢ | $100 |
| 2w ago | pkzMid | Buy | No | 86¢ | $78 |
| 2w ago | pkzMid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $117 |