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Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $117.2K·Volume $2.9M·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes17%No84%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 06:32computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
No
84% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
69%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
84%price84%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$4,462 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$5,944
72h +$25.3K
Smart money entered79¢84¢at 06:32(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy4h agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$117.2K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are strongly betting on "No", with $4,462 riding on it.

The price of 84% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 79¢; the price was 84¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$5,944, +$25.3K over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 06:32
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
4h agojustdanceMidBuyNo82¢$70
4h agoTokorTopBuyNo83¢$1,552
4h agoTokorTopBuyNo83¢$1,552
4h agojustdanceMidBuyNo83¢$2,490
13h agojustdanceMidBuyNo84¢$2
13h agojustdanceMidBuyNo84¢$245
1d agoboyauMidSellYes20¢$346
1d agoboyauMidSellYes20¢$346
1d agoTokorTopBuyNo78¢$1,431
1d agojustdanceMidBuyNo78¢$2,340
1d agoTokorTopBuyNo78¢$1,431
1d agojustdanceMidBuyNo78¢$2,340
1d agojustdanceMidBuyNo79¢$2,370
1d agojustdanceMidBuyNo79¢$2,370
2d agoTokorTopBuyNo80¢$1,476
2d agojustdanceMidBuyNo80¢$2,400
2d agojustdanceMidBuyNo80¢$423
2d agojustdanceMidBuyNo79¢$181
2d agojustdanceMidBuyNo79¢$181
2d agojustdanceMidBuyNo81¢$31
2d agojustdanceMidBuyNo80¢$353
2d agojustdanceMidBuyNo79¢$96
2d agojustdanceMidBuyNo78¢$871
3d agojustdanceMidBuyNo76¢$2,280
4d agojustdanceMidBuyNo78¢$341
4d agojustdanceMidBuyNo77¢$421
5d agojustdanceMidBuyNo74¢$84
5d agojustdanceMidBuyNo76¢$2,280
5d agoTokorTopBuyYes21¢$561
5d agojustdanceMidBuyYes21¢$630
5d agoTokorTopBuyYes22¢$477
5d agoTokorTopBuyYes22¢$425
5d agoTokorTopBuyYes22¢$462
5d agojustdanceMidBuyNo75¢$22
5d agojustdanceMidBuyNo71¢$925
5d agojustdanceMidBuyNo70¢$157
5d agojustdanceMidBuyNo69¢$83
5d agojustdanceMidBuyNo69¢$231
5d agojustdanceMidBuyNo68¢$362
5d agojustdanceMidBuyNo66¢$344
5d agojustdanceMidBuyNo65¢$13
5d agoTokorTopBuyYes37¢$794
5d agoTokorTopBuyYes36¢$797
5d agojustdanceMidBuyYes37¢$1,110
5d agoponydsbMidBuyYes39¢$248
6d agoboyauMidBuyYes40¢$48
6d agoboyauMidBuyYes40¢$35
6d agoboyauMidBuyYes40¢$96
6d agoboyauMidBuyYes40¢$2,099
6d agojustdanceMidBuyYes40¢$91