Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $193.9K·Volume $1.7M·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes0%No100%
Smart money leans
No
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$30.0K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered100¢100¢at 02:31(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy4w agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$193.9K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $30.0K riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 100¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $30.0K of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 02:31
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4w ago | 033033033Top | Buy | No | 100¢ | $5 |
| 4w ago | 033033033Top | Buy | No | 100¢ | $29,907 |
| 9w ago | Diabolical-PrizeMid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $5 |