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Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $98.1K·Volume $2.3M·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes1%No99%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 02:56computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
No
99% at snapshot
Divergence
-0.2pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
4
$98.7K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h -$115.5K
Smart money entered94¢99¢at 02:56Edge leftnoneLast smart buy6d agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$98.1K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

4 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $98.7K riding on it.

The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 94¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot.

No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have trimmed -$115.5K on this position.

Delayed 1h · as of 02:56
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
1d agoSiddhartha1TopSellNo98¢$37,464
1d agoSiddhartha1TopSellNo98¢$37,464
1d agoSiddhartha1TopSellNo98¢$4
1d agoSiddhartha1TopSellNo98¢$197
1d agoSiddhartha1TopSellNo98¢$197
2d agoSiddhartha1TopSellNo98¢$17,630
2d agoSiddhartha1TopSellNo98¢$17,630
2d agoSiddhartha1TopSellNo98¢$556
2d agoSiddhartha1TopSellNo98¢$5
2d agoSiddhartha1TopSellNo98¢$3,430
2d agoSiddhartha1TopSellNo98¢$6
2d agoSiddhartha1TopSellNo98¢$7
4d agoSiddhartha1TopSellNo98¢$2
5d agoSiddhartha1TopSellNo98¢$980
5d agoSiddhartha1TopSellNo98¢$8,308
5d agojustdanceMidBuyYes2.1¢$63
6d agojustdanceMidBuyNo98¢$2,934
1w agoboyauMidBuyNo97¢$1,938
1w agoboyauMidBuyNo97¢$10
1w agoboyauMidBuyNo97¢$15
1w agoboyauMidBuyNo97¢$1
1w agoboyauMidBuyNo97¢$10
1w agoboyauMidBuyNo97¢$3
1w agoboyauMidBuyNo97¢$13,747
2w agofbetMidSellNo97¢$457
2w agoSiddhartha1TopBuyNo97¢$33,717
2w agoSiddhartha1TopBuyNo97¢$4,564
2w agoboyauMidBuyNo97¢$4,194
2w agoSiddhartha1TopBuyNo97¢$390
2w agoSiddhartha1TopBuyNo97¢$174
2w agoSiddhartha1TopBuyNo97¢$8
2w agoSiddhartha1TopBuyNo97¢$7
3w agoSiddhartha1TopBuyNo97¢$4,117
3w agoTokorTopBuyYes3.4¢$33
5w ago0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7MidSellNo95¢$2,335
5w ago0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7MidSellNo95¢$2,338
5w ago0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7MidSellNo95¢$664
5w agofbetMidBuyNo95¢$450
6w agoboyauMidBuyNo92¢$3
6w agoboyauMidBuyNo92¢$7
6w agoboyauMidBuyNo92¢$7
6w agoboyauMidBuyNo92¢$4
6w agoboyauMidBuyNo91¢$27,922
6w ago0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7MidBuyNo91¢$9,176
7w agoboyauMidBuyNo91¢$147
7w agoboyauMidBuyNo91¢$49
7w agoboyauMidBuyNo91¢$10
7w ago0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7MidBuyNo91¢$412
7w ago0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7MidBuyNo90¢$570
7w agoTokorTopBuyNo87¢$311