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Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in November?

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $127.9K·Volume $280.7K·Ends Dec 1, 2026
Price now:Yes1%No99%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 19:16computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
No
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$16.6K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$11.6K
Smart money entered98¢99¢at 19:16(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2d agoResolvesin 20d(Dec 1, 2026)Liquidity$127.9K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $16.6K riding on it.

The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 98¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Note: only $16.6K of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$11.6K on this position.

Delayed 1h · as of 19:16
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
2d agoTrump2028TopBuyNo99¢$5,622
2d agoTrump2028TopBuyNo99¢$4,404
2d agoTrump2028TopBuyNo99¢$870
2d agoTrump2028TopBuyNo99¢$5
2d agoTrump2028TopBuyNo99¢$670
5d agoTrump2028TopBuyNo97¢$1,928
5d agoTrump2028TopBuyNo97¢$1,952
5d agoTrump2028TopBuyNo97¢$14
5d agoTrump2028TopBuyNo97¢$87
5d agoTrump2028TopBuyNo97¢$84
5d agoTrump2028TopBuyNo97¢$82
5d agoTrump2028TopBuyNo97¢$97
5d agoTrump2028TopBuyNo97¢$28
5d agoTrump2028TopBuyNo97¢$77
5d agoTrump2028TopBuyNo97¢$66
5d agoTrump2028TopBuyNo97¢$624
6d ago0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7TopBuyYes2.7¢$16
6d ago0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7TopBuyYes1.5¢$11