TailSlip
Log in

Command Palette

Search for a command to run...

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $131.2K·Volume $4.1M·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes6%No94%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 07:06computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
No
96% at snapshot
Divergence
-0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
88%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
96%price95%model est.*
Smart wallets
7
$20.0K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$1,996
72h +$13.7K
Smart money entered88¢96¢at 07:06Edge leftnoneLast smart buy4h agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$131.2K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

7 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $20.0K riding on it.

The price of 96% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 88¢; the price was 96¢ at this snapshot.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$1,996, +$13.7K over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 07:06
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
4h ago4751346MidBuyNo95¢$122
4h ago4751346MidBuyNo95¢$937
5h ago4751346MidBuyNo95¢$927
1d agopilimiliMidBuyNo91¢$9,814
1d agopilimiliMidBuyNo91¢$9,814
1d agojustdanceMidBuyNo92¢$448
1d agojustdanceMidBuyNo92¢$448
1d agojustdanceMidBuyNo92¢$1,929
2d agojustdanceMidBuyNo93¢$599
2d ago0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7MidSellYes7.0¢$552
2d agoxxNyxMidSellNo93¢$930
2d agoboyauMidSellNo93¢$5,115
2d agoboyauMidSellNo93¢$5,115
2d ago0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7MidSellYes7.0¢$552
2d agoxxNyxMidSellNo93¢$930
2d agoboyauMidSellNo93¢$10
4d agojustdanceMidBuyNo92¢$1,320
5d agojustdanceMidBuyNo91¢$107
5d agojustdanceMidBuyNo91¢$6
5d agojustdanceMidBuyYes8.0¢$193
5d ago0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7MidSellYes13¢$388
5d agojustdanceMidBuyNo85¢$1,229
6d ago0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7MidSellYes14¢$187
6d agoxxNyxMidBuyNo90¢$900
6d agojustdanceMidBuyYes8.0¢$8
1w agojustme003MidBuyNo91¢$3,162
1w agojustdanceMidBuyYes9.0¢$270
1w agojustdanceMidBuyYes9.0¢$127
1w ago0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7MidSellYes10¢$110
1w agoxxNyxMidSellNo90¢$667
1w agojustdanceMidBuyYes9.0¢$28
1w agoxxNyxMidSellNo90¢$395
1w agojustme003MidBuyNo90¢$3,625
1w agojustdanceMidBuyYes11¢$330
1w ago0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7MidSellYes12¢$72
1w agoTokorTopBuyNo89¢$1,802
1w agoTokorTopBuyNo88¢$1,052
1w agojustdanceMidBuyNo86¢$215
1w agoTokorTopBuyNo88¢$1,021
1w ago0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7MidSellYes12¢$244
1w agoTokorTopBuyNo86¢$917
1w agojustdanceMidBuyNo85¢$439
1w ago0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7MidBuyYes15¢$1,589
1w agoTokorTopBuyNo85¢$178
1w agoTokorTopBuyNo85¢$4,210
1w ago0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7MidSellYes17¢$126
1w ago0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7MidSellYes18¢$104
1w agojustdanceMidBuyNo80¢$229
2w agojustdanceMidBuyNo82¢$1,519
2w agojustdanceMidBuyNo81¢$1