Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $227.8K·Volume $9.3M·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes3%No97%
Smart money leans
No
97% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
75%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
97%price97%model est.*
Smart wallets
5
$15.9K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$2,717
Smart money entered54¢97¢at 17:13(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2d agoResolvesin 50d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$227.8K
Explanation
5 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are strongly betting on "No", with $15.9K riding on it.
The price of 97% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 54¢; the price was 97¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$2,717 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 17:13
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | pbshineMid | Buy | Yes | 3.1¢ | $46 |
| 1d ago | pbshineMid | Buy | Yes | 3.1¢ | $46 |
| 2d ago | boyauMid | Sell | Yes | 4.0¢ | $494 |
| 2d ago | pbshineMid | Buy | Yes | 4.0¢ | $56 |
| 2d ago | pbshineMid | Buy | Yes | 4.0¢ | $56 |
| 2d ago | boyauMid | Sell | Yes | 4.0¢ | $494 |
| 2d ago | pbshineMid | Buy | Yes | 4.0¢ | $0 |
| 2d ago | pbshineMid | Buy | Yes | 4.0¢ | $0 |
| 2d ago | pbshineMid | Buy | Yes | 3.7¢ | $96 |
| 2d ago | pbshineMid | Buy | Yes | 3.7¢ | $96 |
| 2d ago | justdanceMid | Buy | Yes | 3.0¢ | $3 |
| 2d ago | justdanceMid | Buy | Yes | 3.0¢ | $3 |
| 2d ago | pbshineMid | Buy | Yes | 3.8¢ | $249 |
| 2d ago | justdanceMid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $2,871 |
| 2d ago | boyauMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $324 |
| 2d ago | 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7Mid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $310 |
| 3d ago | pbshineMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $0 |
| 4d ago | boyauMid | Buy | Yes | 1.8¢ | $261 |
| 4d ago | justdanceMid | Buy | Yes | 3.4¢ | $102 |
| 4d ago | boyauMid | Sell | Yes | 4.9¢ | $51 |
| 5d ago | boyauMid | Sell | Yes | 4.9¢ | $364 |
| 5d ago | boyauMid | Sell | Yes | 4.9¢ | $247 |
| 5d ago | boyauMid | Sell | Yes | 4.9¢ | $247 |
| 5d ago | boyauMid | Sell | Yes | 4.4¢ | $640 |
| 6d ago | boyauMid | Sell | Yes | 4.3¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | boyauMid | Sell | Yes | 4.3¢ | $87 |
| 6d ago | boyauMid | Sell | Yes | 4.3¢ | $21 |
| 6d ago | justdanceMid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $2,886 |
| 6d ago | 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7Mid | Buy | Yes | 2.3¢ | $52 |
| 1w ago | boyauMid | Sell | Yes | 4.3¢ | $8 |
| 1w ago | boyauMid | Sell | Yes | 4.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | boyauMid | Sell | Yes | 4.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | boyauMid | Sell | Yes | 4.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | boyauMid | Sell | Yes | 4.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | boyauMid | Sell | Yes | 4.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | boyauMid | Sell | Yes | 4.3¢ | $46 |
| 1w ago | boyauMid | Sell | Yes | 4.3¢ | $54 |
| 1w ago | ponydsbMid | Sell | Yes | 4.2¢ | $41 |
| 1w ago | boyauMid | Sell | Yes | 4.3¢ | $185 |
| 1w ago | boyauMid | Sell | Yes | 4.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | boyauMid | Sell | Yes | 4.3¢ | $21 |
| 1w ago | pbshineMid | Buy | Yes | 4.0¢ | $60 |
| 1w ago | pbshineMid | Buy | Yes | 4.0¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | pbshineMid | Buy | Yes | 4.0¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | pbshineMid | Buy | Yes | 4.0¢ | $12 |
| 1w ago | pbshineMid | Buy | Yes | 4.0¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | pbshineMid | Buy | Yes | 4.5¢ | $126 |
| 1w ago | justdanceMid | Buy | Yes | 3.8¢ | $106 |
| 1w ago | pbshineMid | Buy | Yes | 4.4¢ | $102 |
| 1w ago | justdanceMid | Buy | Yes | 1.6¢ | $48 |