Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $77.2K·Volume $2.9M·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes3%No98%
Smart money leans
No
98% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
98%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
98%price98%model est.*
Smart wallets
5
$28.9K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered85¢98¢at 11:41(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy5d agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$77.2K
Explanation
5 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $28.9K riding on it.
The price of 98% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 85¢; the price was 98¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Delayed 1h · as of 11:41
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d ago | 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7Mid | Sell | No | 98¢ | $1,615 |
| 4d ago | justdanceMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $13 |
| 4d ago | justdanceMid | Buy | Yes | 2.2¢ | $9 |
| 5d ago | justdanceMid | Buy | Yes | 2.3¢ | $69 |
| 5d ago | 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $2,454 |
| 5d ago | 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $9,627 |
| 5d ago | justdanceMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $1,109 |
| 5d ago | 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7Mid | Sell | No | 98¢ | $5,008 |
| 5d ago | justdanceMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $2,937 |
| 5d ago | 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7Mid | Sell | No | 98¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | justdanceMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $30 |
| 1w ago | justdanceMid | Buy | Yes | 2.1¢ | $63 |
| 1w ago | justdanceMid | Buy | Yes | 2.5¢ | $22 |
| 1w ago | justdanceMid | Buy | Yes | 2.5¢ | $7 |
| 1w ago | yen4uMid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $2,313 |
| 2w ago | yen4uMid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $756 |
| 2w ago | yen4uMid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $726 |
| 3w ago | TokorTop | Buy | Yes | 3.9¢ | $100 |
| 4w ago | TokorTop | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $15 |
| 4w ago | boyauMid | Sell | No | 98¢ | $8,629 |
| 6w ago | 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $7,508 |
| 6w ago | yen4uMid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $2,854 |
| 6w ago | yen4uMid | Sell | No | 96¢ | $743 |
| 6w ago | boyauMid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $38,169 |
| 7w ago | TokorTop | Buy | No | 95¢ | $2,849 |
| 7w ago | boyauMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $45,932 |
| 7w ago | boyauMid | Sell | Yes | 5.0¢ | $4,919 |
| 7w ago | boyauMid | Sell | Yes | 8.0¢ | $0 |
| 7w ago | boyauMid | Sell | Yes | 8.0¢ | $8 |
| 7w ago | boyauMid | Sell | Yes | 8.0¢ | $0 |
| 7w ago | boyauMid | Sell | Yes | 8.0¢ | $100 |
| 8w ago | boyauMid | Sell | Yes | 8.0¢ | $16 |
| 8w ago | boyauMid | Sell | Yes | 8.0¢ | $40 |
| 8w ago | boyauMid | Sell | Yes | 8.0¢ | $40 |
| 8w ago | boyauMid | Sell | Yes | 8.0¢ | $4 |
| 8w ago | boyauMid | Sell | Yes | 8.0¢ | $0 |
| 8w ago | justdanceMid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $2,804 |
| 8w ago | justdanceMid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $2,804 |
| 9w ago | justdanceMid | Buy | Yes | 6.0¢ | $0 |
| 9w ago | justdanceMid | Buy | Yes | 6.0¢ | $295 |
| 10w ago | boyauMid | Buy | Yes | 6.0¢ | $876 |
| 10w ago | boyauMid | Buy | Yes | 6.0¢ | $1,800 |
| 10w ago | boyauMid | Buy | Yes | 7.0¢ | $2,592 |
| 10w ago | boyauMid | Buy | Yes | 7.0¢ | $208 |
| 10w ago | justdanceMid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $2,804 |
| 10w ago | boyauMid | Buy | Yes | 6.0¢ | $20 |
| 10w ago | boyauMid | Buy | Yes | 6.0¢ | $0 |
| 10w ago | boyauMid | Buy | Yes | 6.0¢ | $119 |
| 10w ago | justdanceMid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $137 |
| 10w ago | boyauMid | Buy | Yes | 6.0¢ | $1 |