Will Bernard Cazeneuve be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
ActiveLiquidity $12.0K·Volume $13.6K·Ends Apr 18, 2027
Price now:Yes4%No96%
Smart money leans
No
96% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
96%price96%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$406 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered80¢96¢at 11:45(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneSignal age30dResolvesin 158d(Apr 18, 2027)Liquidity$12.0K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $406 riding on it.
The price of 96% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 80¢; the price was 96¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $406 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 11:45
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $1 |