Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?
ActiveLiquidity $55.9K·Volume $421.4K·Ends Jan 1, 2030
Price now:Yes22%No79%
Smart money leans
Yes
22% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
22%price22%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$6,910 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered23¢22¢at Nov 10, 23:49(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppSignal age30dResolvesin 1147d(Jan 1, 2030)Liquidity$55.9K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $6,910 riding on it.
The price of 22% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 23¢; the price was 22¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $6,910 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of Nov 10, 23:49
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4h ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | Yes | 22¢ | $2 |
| 15h ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | Yes | 22¢ | $46 |
| 21h ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | Yes | 22¢ | $63 |
| 21h ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | Yes | 22¢ | $63 |
| 1d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | Yes | 22¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | Yes | 22¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | Yes | 22¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | Yes | 22¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | Yes | 23¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | Yes | 23¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | Yes | 22¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | Yes | 22¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | Yes | 23¢ | $2 |
| 3d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | Yes | 22¢ | $6 |
| 3d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | Yes | 22¢ | $2 |
| 3d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | Yes | 22¢ | $6 |
| 3d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | Yes | 22¢ | $33 |
| 3d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | Yes | 22¢ | $4 |
| 3d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | Yes | 22¢ | $3 |
| 3d ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 77¢ | $169 |
| 3d ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 77¢ | $1,003 |
| 3d ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 77¢ | $154 |
| 3d ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 77¢ | $154 |
| 3d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | Yes | 22¢ | $4 |
| 3d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | Yes | 22¢ | $1,489 |
| 3d ago | l3t0Mid | Sell | No | 80¢ | $130 |
| 3d ago | l3t0Mid | Sell | No | 80¢ | $188 |
| 3d ago | l3t0Mid | Sell | No | 80¢ | $101 |
| 5d ago | l3t0Mid | Buy | No | 79¢ | $3,715 |
| 5d ago | qizhanMid | Sell | No | 79¢ | $1,146 |
| 6d ago | l3t0Mid | Buy | No | 78¢ | $35 |
| 6d ago | l3t0Mid | Buy | No | 78¢ | $71 |
| 6d ago | qizhanMid | Sell | No | 79¢ | $100 |
| 6d ago | l3t0Mid | Buy | No | 78¢ | $35 |
| 6d ago | qizhanMid | Sell | No | 79¢ | $237 |
| 6d ago | l3t0Mid | Buy | No | 78¢ | $4 |
| 6d ago | l3t0Mid | Buy | No | 78¢ | $6 |
| 6d ago | l3t0Mid | Buy | No | 79¢ | $1,036 |
| 6d ago | qizhanMid | Sell | No | 79¢ | $1,027 |
| 6d ago | l3t0Mid | Buy | No | 78¢ | $106 |
| 1w ago | qizhanMid | Sell | No | 79¢ | $14 |
| 1w ago | qizhanMid | Sell | No | 79¢ | $20 |
| 1w ago | qizhanMid | Sell | No | 79¢ | $20 |
| 1w ago | qizhanMid | Sell | No | 79¢ | $20 |
| 1w ago | qizhanMid | Sell | No | 79¢ | $20 |
| 1w ago | qizhanMid | Sell | No | 79¢ | $20 |
| 1w ago | qizhanMid | Sell | No | 79¢ | $20 |
| 1w ago | qizhanMid | Sell | No | 79¢ | $20 |
| 1w ago | qizhanMid | Sell | No | 79¢ | $20 |
| 1w ago | qizhanMid | Sell | No | 79¢ | $20 |