Will another city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup?
ActiveLiquidity $8,535·Volume $201.7K
Price now:Yes49%No52%
Smart money leans
Yes
49% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
49%price49%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$3,079 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h -$170
Smart money entered47¢49¢at 08:25(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2w agoLiquidity$8,535
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $3,079 riding on it.
The price of 49% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 47¢; the price was 49¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $3,079 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have trimmed -$170 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 08:25
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 49¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 49¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 49¢ | $83 |
| 1d ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 49¢ | $83 |
| 1d ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 49¢ | $2 |
| 1d ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 49¢ | $2 |
| 3d ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 49¢ | $26 |
| 3d ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 49¢ | $10 |
| 3d ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 49¢ | $20 |
| 3d ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 49¢ | $10 |
| 3d ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 49¢ | $10 |
| 3d ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 49¢ | $11 |
| 4d ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 49¢ | $5 |
| 4d ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 49¢ | $735 |
| 4d ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 49¢ | $10 |
| 4d ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 49¢ | $10 |
| 4d ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 49¢ | $11 |
| 4d ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 49¢ | $10 |
| 4d ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 49¢ | $11 |
| 4d ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 49¢ | $109 |
| 4d ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 49¢ | $49 |
| 4d ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 49¢ | $49 |
| 4d ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 49¢ | $49 |
| 5d ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 49¢ | $49 |
| 6d ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 49¢ | $0 |
| 6d ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 49¢ | $12 |
| 6d ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 49¢ | $9 |
| 1w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 47¢ | $433 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 48¢ | $10 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 47¢ | $43 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 47¢ | $10 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 47¢ | $10 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 47¢ | $10 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 47¢ | $10 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 47¢ | $24 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 47¢ | $14 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 47¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 47¢ | $8 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 47¢ | $19 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 47¢ | $27 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $582 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 47¢ | $90 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 47¢ | $19 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 47¢ | $11 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 42¢ | $2 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 42¢ | $187 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 42¢ | $8 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 42¢ | $8 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 42¢ | $29 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 42¢ | $18 |