Will Ahmed Aliyu win the 2027 Sokoto State gubernatorial election?
ActiveLiquidity $1,198·Volume $6,973·Ends Feb 7, 2027
Price now:Yes70%No30%
Smart money leans
Yes
71% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
71%price71%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$267 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered60¢71¢at 02:41(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2w agoResolvesin 88d(Feb 7, 2027)Liquidity$1,198
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $267 riding on it.
The price of 71% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 60¢; the price was 71¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $267 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 02:41
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | Yes | 70¢ | $102 |
| 2w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 60¢ | $333 |
| 2w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 58¢ | $21 |