Will Bill Hill win the AK-AL House seat?
ActiveLiquidity $43.9K·Volume $46.5K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes15%No85%
Smart money leans
No
85% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
85%price85%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$3,662 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$1,731
72h +$2,766
Smart money entered92¢85¢at 16:13(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy2h agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$43.9K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $3,662 riding on it.
The price of 85% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 92¢; the price was 85¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $3,662 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$1,731, +$2,766 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 16:13
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $54 |
| 1h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $54 |
| 1h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $120 |
| 1h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $120 |
| 2h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $51 |
| 4h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $28 |
| 4h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $28 |
| 15h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 90¢ | $118 |
| 15h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 90¢ | $44 |
| 15h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 90¢ | $44 |
| 15h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 90¢ | $54 |
| 15h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 90¢ | $54 |
| 15h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 90¢ | $26 |
| 15h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 90¢ | $26 |
| 15h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 90¢ | $21 |
| 15h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 90¢ | $21 |
| 15h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 90¢ | $26 |
| 15h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 90¢ | $54 |
| 15h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 90¢ | $54 |
| 15h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 90¢ | $54 |
| 15h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 90¢ | $41 |
| 15h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 90¢ | $41 |
| 15h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 90¢ | $54 |
| 15h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 90¢ | $20 |
| 15h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 90¢ | $57 |
| 15h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 90¢ | $57 |
| 15h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 90¢ | $22 |
| 15h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 90¢ | $22 |
| 15h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 91¢ | $320 |
| 15h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 91¢ | $320 |
| 15h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 91¢ | $18 |
| 15h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 91¢ | $18 |
| 15h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 91¢ | $16 |
| 15h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 91¢ | $16 |
| 15h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 91¢ | $12 |
| 15h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 91¢ | $12 |
| 15h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 91¢ | $10 |
| 15h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 91¢ | $10 |
| 19h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 91¢ | $27 |
| 19h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 91¢ | $27 |
| 1d ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 91¢ | $142 |
| 1d ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 91¢ | $142 |
| 2d ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 90¢ | $2 |
| 2d ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 90¢ | $451 |
| 2d ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 90¢ | $18 |
| 2d ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 90¢ | $18 |
| 2d ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 90¢ | $18 |
| 2d ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 90¢ | $5 |
| 2d ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 90¢ | $18 |
| 2d ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 90¢ | $7 |