Will a third-place Senate candidate win at least 8% of the vote in 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $2,274·Volume $2,417·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes99%No1%
Smart money leans
Yes
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$981 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered67¢99¢at 07:12(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2w agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$2,274
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $981 riding on it.
The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 67¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $981 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:12
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | Yes | 73¢ | $88 |
| 2w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | Yes | 72¢ | $596 |
| 2w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Sell | Yes | 63¢ | $20 |
| 2w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | Yes | 59¢ | $145 |
| 2w ago | 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754Mid | Buy | Yes | 56¢ | $171 |