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US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $12.6K·Volume $70.1K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes3%No97%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 02:51computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
No
97% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
97%price97%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$917 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered92¢97¢at 02:51(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy3w agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$12.6K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $917 riding on it.

The price of 97% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 92¢; the price was 97¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Note: only $917 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Delayed 1h · as of 02:51
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
3w agoAnjunMidBuyNo94¢$5
3w agoAnjunMidBuyYes5.0¢$3
3w agoAnjunMidBuyYes5.0¢$2
5w agoAnjunMidBuyNo93¢$516
6w agoAnjunMidBuyNo90¢$27
6w agoAnjunMidBuyNo90¢$2
6w agoAnjunMidBuyNo90¢$5
6w agoAnjunMidBuyNo90¢$9
7w agoAnjunMidBuyNo90¢$43
7w agoD8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935MidSellNo94¢$257
7w agoAnjunMidBuyYes6.0¢$38
7w agoD8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935MidSellNo94¢$25
7w agoAnjunMidBuyYes7.0¢$28
7w agoAnjunMidBuyYes7.0¢$7
7w agoAnjunMidBuyYes7.0¢$38
7w agoAnjunMidBuyYes8.0¢$2
7w agoAnjunMidBuyYes8.0¢$7
7w agoD8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935MidBuyNo91¢$274
7w agoAnjunMidBuyNo91¢$1,011
7w agoAnjunMidBuyNo93¢$1,033
8w agoviniiTopBuyNo85¢$955
8w agoviniiTopBuyNo76¢$227
8w agoviniiTopBuyYes15¢$2
8w agoviniiTopBuyYes7.7¢$112